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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

However this year's field is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans improving together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still